Monday 8 June 2009

The Numbers Game

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IEA Casts Doubt on China’s Data

The question of whether China is presenting a too rosy growth picture came from an interesting corner: the International Energy Agency.

The IEA said Beijing’s official 6.1% on-year growth in first-quarter gross domestic product didn’t tally with a 3.5% drop in China’s oil demand in the quarter and also cited “inordinately weak” electricity demand.

“Admittedly, pinpointing China’s oil demand with accuracy is an exercise fraught with difficulties, given the lack of data and the underlying assumptions analysts must make regarding stocks and refinery output from independent producers,” the IEA said in its latest report on the global oil market (available here, subscription required).

“Still, one would have expected stronger, positive oil demand growth commensurate with the reported economic resilience, unless income elasticities had drastically changed.”

The IEA floated another possibility: Real GDP data aren’t accurate and shouldn’t be taken at face value.

It cited analysis by one research firm: London-based economic consultancy Lombard Street Research, often found on the lower end of estimates of China growth. On China’s first quarter, Lombard Street said growth was “probably slightly negative or nil at best.” That’s a minority view, as many economists think that while growth in the fourth quarter of last year was likely overstated by official GDP figures, that’s less true of the improving first quarter.

And extrapolating from a volume indicator like oil or electricity use to GDP — a value-added measure — is not a straightforward process. Many economists think the disconnect between China’s measures of energy consumption and GDP reflects a sharper slowdown in energy-intensive sectors than in the overall economy.

“This analysis … is of course one set of opinions among many,” the IEA said. “However, its conclusions regarding China’s real 1Q09 GDP growth seem more consistent with oil demand estimates.” The agency said it was sticking with its forecast of a 0.9% decline in 2009 in China’s apparent oil demand.

China’s statisticians have defended the accuracy of their work.

–David Winning

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国家统计局有关负责人就有关国际组织质疑中国经济数据可信度的情况接受记者采访
国家统计局综合司 2009-05-25 09:43:46

  记者:我想你一定注意到了华尔街日报2009515日根据有关国际组织报告编发的对中国经济数据质疑的文章。

 

  有关负责人:我们注意到了这篇文章,并且我们还认真阅读了该文引用的有关国际组织的原文,遗憾的是原文的观点缺乏论据,而且有些观点还是引用民间咨询机构的结论。我们认为,作为一个国际组织,这一做法是缺乏严肃性的。

 

  记者:那么,你怎么认为其观点缺乏论据呢?

 

  有关负责人:原文认为,中国今年一季度GDP增速同石油需求数据不吻合,同电力需求也不吻合。问题是,这样对比是不科学的。拿经济总体增速与部分能源消耗增速的数据进行对比,犯了总体与部分对比的错误。实际上,今年一季度GDP同比增长6.1%,而同期全社会能源消费总量增长3.0%,与经济增长保持了同方向的变化,不存在不吻合的问题。

 

  记者:你能否再具体分析一下呢?

 

  有关负责人:我们也注意到了,经济保持了正增长,而全社会用电量却是负增长,出现这种现象,主要有两个原因:一是今年一季度产业结构变化较大,用电量相对较少的第三产业增长较快。一季度,第三产业增加值同比增长7.4%,超过第二产业2.1个百分点,占国内生产总值的比重由上年同期的42.7%提升到44.3%,已经超过第二产业中工业的比重。工业增加值占国内生产总值的比重由上年一季度的46.0%下降到今年一季度的44.1%

 

  二是主要高耗能行业生产及用电量增长放缓,而用电相对较少的高技术产业增长较快。一季度,用电量占规模以上工业企业63%左右的六大高耗能行业增加值同比增长2.3%,比上年同期回落了12.5个百分点。用电量则由2008年一季度的增长13.2%转为下降3.7%,下降幅度超出规模以上工业企业用电量降幅1.1个百分点。一季度,信息化学品制造同比增长15.5%,化学药品制造增长14.0%,生物、生化制品制造增长17.2%,通信交换设备制造增长34.7%,医疗设备及器械制造增长11.0%,均大大超过规模以上工业增加值5.1%的增长速度。

 

  更说明问题的是,尽管经济是正增长,用(发)电量是负增长,但两者变化趋势是十分吻合的。去年以来,到今年2月份,规模以上工业增加值增速持续回落,相应的发电量也持续回落;1-3月份工业增加值增速出现回升,同期发电量增速也出现回升。

 

规模以上工业增加值与发电量累计同比增速

 

 

  记者:国外也出现过经济增速与用电量变化不一致的情况吗?

 

  有关负责人:确实国外也出现过。比如美国2001年电力消费下降3.6%,而国内生产总值增长0.8%1991年电力消费增长5.0%,但国内生产总值下降0.2%。日本2003年电力消费下降1.3%,而国内生产总值增长1.8%,在198019822001年也曾经出现电力消费下降而国内生产总值增长的情况,而在19981999年则出现电力消费增长而国内生产总值下降的情况。韩国1980年电力消费增长5.4%,而国内生产总值下降1.5%

 

  记者:这一国际组织的报告还引用了一民间机构的观点,认为今年一季度GDP增长6.1%同贸易量同比下降大约20%不一致,据此质疑GDP数据,对此,你怎么看?

 

  有关负责人:两个数据都没错,但拿两个没有完全对应关系的正确数据相比就不对了。GDP的增速是投资、消费和国外需求增速的综合结果,因此GDP增速与三大需求中的某一需求如国外需求增速方向不一致是正常的。如在某一需求出现下降,但其他需求增长更多的情况下,也会出现GDP的增长,更何况贸易量还不包括服务项,也不是真正意义上的外需。在分析问题的时候,千万不要犯盲人摸象的幼稚错误。今年一季度我国GDP增长6.1%,完全是靠内需所拉动。在国际金融危机继续扩散蔓延,世界经济急剧下降,国外需求大幅减弱的形势下,我国采取了扩大内需、促进经济平稳较快增长的一揽子计划,投资持续加快增长,消费稳定较快增长,内需对经济增长贡献加大。初步测算,今年一季度投资和消费共同拉动GDP增长6.3个百分点,国外需求负拉动0.2个百分点。

 

  记者:你还有什么需要补充的吗?

 

  有关负责人:国际社会各界历来都很相信有关国际组织发布的信息,这就要求国际组织对发布的信息一定要认真、严肃、负责,以更好地维护国际社会的健康有序发展。特别是在国际金融危机的今天,更应该严肃。

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